All bitcoin models destroyed: Stock-to-Flow, Power Law, Rainbow
With bitcoin nearing all-time highs and many commentators in disbelief as its price nears $100,000, Bitcoiners are harkening to an old Michael Saylor prediction: “All your models are destroyed.” The original point of Saylor’s declaration was to disavow pricing models that Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough was espousing on his trading show. Saylor proposed to McCullough an example of a few billionaires spontaneously deciding to buy bitcoin. This exogenous shock to the relatively thinly traded bitcoin market would shatter all of the technical and correlative indicators popular among Hedgeye traders. In this way, bitcoin has a history of defying expectations and has survived numerous death pronouncements. As bitcoin proves its staying power over time, it tends to defy predictions that once captured the attention of large communities and technical analysts. Speculative Bitcoin Adoption Price Theory One early forecast for bitcoin assumed from its outset that there would soo...