Traders 73% less confident of Canada getting pro-Bitcoin PM
Binary options gambling website Polymarket is facilitating crypto-denominated bets at a dismal 25% odds rate that Pierre Poilievre will become Canada’s next prime minister on April 28. That’s a stark 73% decline from the pro-Bitcoin candidate’s 93% odds rate just three months ago. Donald Trump is largely responsible for the swap in the race’s odds. Trump tacitly endorsed Mark Carney, telling Fox News TV viewers that “it’s easier to deal with” him versus Poilievre. He added, “the Conservative [Poilievre] that’s running is, stupidly, no friend of mine” who has “said negative things.” Once trading at 12% when Poilievre was trading at 93%, Carney has now advanced to a 76% rate among Polymarket gamblers. Holders of these binary call options will make money if Carney wins re-election as Canada’s prime minister. Binary options competitor Kalshi, a Polymarket competitor, is facilitating trades at a 79% rate, favoring Carney, and a 22% rate against Poilievre. Like most tw...